Consensus PnL -$57K · win rate 87% (131–19, n=150) · was PM monthly #953 · holds 263 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-57.3K
Record
131W / 19L
Win Rate
87.0%
of 150 settled
Batting Avg
—
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#318
Source
PM monthly #953
Record (90 d)
188/210 · 90%
Trades
122
Markets
452
Volume
$650.5K
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Top consensus positions
263 in listed consensus markets · 139 of 263 on the consensus side (53%)- Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $6.2K · now 32¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (No)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $4.6K · now 90¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (52% of 69)
- Will the Democratic Party win the OH-10 House seat?Yes $3.7K · now 81¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (56% of 25)
- Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire governor race in 2026?Yes $3.3K · now 92¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (46% of 37)
- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Yes $3.1K · now 17¢ · in at 26¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Yes $2.8K · now 36¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the Republican Party win the TX-23 House seat?No $2.1K · now 89¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (76% of 53)
- Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?Yes $1.9K · now 75¢ · in at 51¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
128 settled consensus markets · held side won 95% at an average entry of 70¢- MMA
+29 pts
side won 97% of 96 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +29%
- Economy
+13 pts
side won 82% of 11 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +13%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 67% of 9)
- 30–50¢: 16%(won 95% of 21)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 94% of 18)
- 70¢ and up: 63%(won 99% of 80)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.