Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 99¢ · $8K held · ended Aug 13

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Thu, Aug 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$17.92

Smart Money Entry

91.5¢ → 99.4¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes99%

No1%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.6K

Total Shares7,600

Combined PnL+$312.13

No3 traders

Total Value$35.68

Total Shares6,488

Combined PnL-$330.06

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

1874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (1 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 1

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
archaic	Yesavg 90.3¢	$5.8K	$6.0K	+$257.38	85% 1906-339 (2245)
Bromley86	Yesavg 95.9¢	$1.5K	$1.5K	+$54.76	90% 728-80 (808)
AN anoin123CTR	Noavg 5¢	$294.6	$32.41	-$262.19	47% 476-535 (1011)
SN SnoorrasonCTR<$100	Noavg 12.4¢	$59.96	$2.65	-$57.31	39% 1181-1881 (3062)
RO rocky42019CTR<$100	Noavg 9.8¢	$11.18	$0.62	-$10.56	42% 1726-2358 (4084)

archaic

Yes

Invested

$5,758.86

Value

$6.0K

PnL

+$257.38

Record

85%

1906-339 (2245)

Bromley86

Yes

Invested

$1,486.95

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$54.76

Record

90%

728-80 (808)

anoin123CTR

Invested

$294.6

Value

$32.41

PnL

-$262.19

Record

47%

476-535 (1011)

SnoorrasonCTR<$100

Invested

$59.96

Value

$2.65

PnL

-$57.31

Record

39%

1181-1881 (3062)

rocky42019CTR<$100

Invested

$11.18

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$10.56

Record

42%

1726-2358 (4084)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 99%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

1874h old

Flip Quality

Clean

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

40% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (4 on Yes) and the top 1000 (1 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 50% · 4

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 1

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.