Consensus PnL $28K · win rate 93% (568–40, n=608) · hand-picked wallet · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$27.7K
Record
568W / 40L
Win Rate
93.0%
of 608 settled
Batting Avg
52.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#193
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
9,290
Markets
861
Volume
$1.7M
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 10 of 10 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?No $9.2K · now 98¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (95% of 21)
- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No $8.0K · now 98¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
- US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?No $2.3K · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (89% of 27)
- Will Russia invade a NATO country by December 31, 2026?No $2.0K · now 97¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (92% of 13)
- Will Mark Brown be the next Prime Minister of the Cook Islands following the 2026 Cook Islands parliamentary elections?Yes $1.5K · now 99¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (40% of 5)
- Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?No $1.4K · now 92¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (70% of 10)
- Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?No $980 · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (86% of 14)
- Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?No $352 · now 97¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (94% of 31)
Specialties
709 settled consensus markets · held side won 94% at an average entry of 92¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 95% of 456 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +2%
- Mentions
+3 pts
side won 100% of 67 · avg entry 97¢
ROI +2%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 95% of 61 · avg entry 90¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Entertainment — held side won 92% of 12 at an average 95¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 2%(won 24% of 17)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 53% of 15)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 54% of 13)
- 70¢ and up: 94%(won 98% of 664)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.