Consensus PnL $201K · win rate 33% (663–1374, n=2037) · hand-picked wallet · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$201.3K
Record
663W / 1374L
Win Rate
33.0%
of 2037 settled
Batting Avg
61.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2169
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
38,779
Markets
3,458
Volume
$10.2M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 9 on the consensus side (33%)- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $15K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (80% of 108)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $4.0K · now 28¢ · in at 35¢against the consensus (Yes)
- JD Vance 2028 presidential odds leader on November 30?No $1.7K · now 21¢ · in at 11¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $189 · now 70¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (76% of 95)
- Will Democrats win the Texas, Michigan, and Maine Senate seats?No $108 · now 42¢ · in at 42¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026?Yes $6 · now 1¢ · in at 0¢with the consensus (96% of 24)
- Will Bad Bunny be the top artist for 2026?No $6 · now 16¢ · in at 44¢against the consensus (Yes)
- No one announced as next James Bond?Yes $4 · now 17¢ · in at 19¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
2,322 settled consensus markets · held side won 34% at an average entry of 31¢- Tech
+9 pts
side won 47% of 162 · avg entry 38¢
ROI +1%
- Entertainment
+5 pts
side won 37% of 283 · avg entry 32¢
ROI +5%
- Mentions
+3 pts
side won 29% of 311 · avg entry 26¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 43% of 58 at an average 44¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 68%(won 9% of 1574)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 56% of 128)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 62% of 84)
- 70¢ and up: 23%(won 98% of 536)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.