Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 99¢ · $298 held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$298.1
-$89.55
98.7¢ → 99.1¢
+0% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
656h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
14 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 98.9¢ | $145.87 | $146.1 | +$0.24 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $60.03 | $60.18 | +$0.16 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 BigMackyGCTR | Yesavg 2.4¢ | $141.74 | $57.26 | -$84.47 | 20% 108-423 (531) |
 eCashCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $30.91 | $27.33 | -$3.58 | 68% 331-155 (486) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.2¢ | $9.13 | $7.23 | -$1.9 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
Invested
$145.87
Value
$146.1
PnL
+$0.24
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$60.03
Value
$60.18
PnL
+$0.16
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
BigMackyGCTRInvested
$141.74
Value
$57.26
PnL
-$84.47
Record
20%
108-423 (531)
eCashCTR<$100Invested
$30.91
Value
$27.33
PnL
-$3.58
Record
68%
331-155 (486)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR<$100Invested
$9.13
Value
$7.23
PnL
-$1.9
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.