Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Michigan Wolverines win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $30 held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$29.88
-$39.1
Research grade
AvoidYes at 0%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
51h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026<$100 | Noavg 99.3¢ | $16.88 | $16.99 | +$0.11 | 42% 6915-9707 (16622) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $9.94 | $10 | +$0.06 | 49% 8748-9254 (18002) |
ND ndb1CTR<$100 | Yes | $2.34 | $2.34 | -$33.62 | 66% 935-490 (1425) |
 TimeTravelerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.6¢ | $6 | $0.5 | -$5.49 | 41% 2015-2857 (4872) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.2¢ | $0.2 | $0.05 | -$0.15 | 58% 19331-14228 (33559) |
Invested
$16.88
Value
$16.99
PnL
+$0.11
Record
42%
6915-9707 (16622)
Invested
$9.94
Value
$10
PnL
+$0.06
Record
49%
8748-9254 (18002)
Invested
$2.34
Value
$2.34
PnL
-$33.62
Record
66%
935-490 (1425)
TimeTravelerCTR<$100Invested
$6
Value
$0.5
PnL
-$5.49
Record
41%
2015-2857 (4872)
Invested
$0.2
Value
$0.05
PnL
-$0.15
Record
58%
19331-14228 (33559)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.