Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 31% (2888–6429, n=9317) · PM monthly #332 · holds 48 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$13.9K
Record
2888W / 6429L
Win Rate
31.0%
of 9317 settled
Batting Avg
100.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2533
Source
PM monthly #332
Record (90 d)
2933/6046 · 49%
Trades
9,899
Markets
19,631
Volume
$2.4M
Top consensus positions
48 in listed consensus markets · 40 of 48 on the consensus side (83%)- Will Trump and Putin meet next in a Gulf country?No $507 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (10% of 10)
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in India before 2027?No $427 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (9% of 11)
- Will "Wildwood" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 3m?No $123 · now 98¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?No $114 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 2°C or below on November 3?No $110 · now 100¢ · in at 100¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Alphabet’s market capitalization be between $3.00T and $3.50T at the end of November 2026?No $81 · now 56¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 9%-12%?No $81 · now 95¢ · in at 95¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Texas Senate election by 3%-6%?No $80 · now 64¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (36% of 14)
Specialties
4,134 settled consensus markets · held side won 38% at an average entry of 41¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where godblessme2026's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Economy — held side won 36% of 157 at an average 43¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −5%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 58%(won 1% of 2400)
- 30–50¢: 2%(won 40% of 85)
- 50–70¢: 4%(won 63% of 158)
- 70¢ and up: 36%(won 96% of 1491)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.