Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 95¢ · $13K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes95¢No5¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$13.1K

Combined PnL

$2.3K

Smart Money Entry

78.7¢ → 95.3¢

+21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes95%

No5%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$13.1K

Total Shares13,728

Combined PnL+$2.4K

No2 traders

Total Value$18.35

Total Shares386

Combined PnL-$67.01

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

1309h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754	Yesavg 79¢	$8.1K	$9.7K	+$1.7K	— 7-2 (9)
SN SnapElectionAvoider	Yesavg 77.4¢	$1.8K	$2.2K	+$408.63	53% 1174-1056 (2230)
FrozenParasite	Yes	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$302.19	55% 463-373 (836)
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100	Noavg 21.8¢	$83.54	$18.25	-$65.29	39% 1781-2832 (4613)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Noavg 84¢	$1.82	$0.1	-$1.72	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754

Yes

Invested

$8,067.35

Value

$9.7K

PnL

+$1.7K

Record

—

7-2 (9)

SnapElectionAvoider

Yes

Invested

$1,773.86

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$408.63

Record

53%

1174-1056 (2230)

FrozenParasite

Yes

Invested

$1,165.97

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$302.19

Record

55%

463-373 (836)

BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100

Invested

$83.54

Value

$18.25

PnL

-$65.29

Record

39%

1781-2832 (4613)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Invested

$1.82

Value

$0.1

PnL

-$1.72

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 95%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Late

1309h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

18 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (3 on No) and the top 1000 (3 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 67% · 3

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance96.4%

95.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$3.70

Max Loss

-$100.00

103.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.