Will N3on lose the most weight in Nozempic 2?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $708 held · ends Nov 13
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$708.33
$38.88
89.7¢ → 96.6¢
+8% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 91%
Freshness
Fresh
6h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TA taemaxx | Noavg 92.2¢ | $549.84 | $575.28 | +$25.44 | — 2-1 (3) |
 Relaccsed<$100 | Noavg 95¢ | $68.41 | $69.56 | +$1.15 | — 4-1 (5) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Noavg 68.1¢ | $39.34 | $42.79 | +$3.45 | 41% 3007-4413 (7420) |
QW qwen300.fund<$100 | Noavg 38.1¢ | $7.62 | $19.32 | +$11.7 | 28% 2449-6153 (8602) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Yesavg 10.4¢ | $4.24 | $1.39 | -$2.85 | 23% 80-263 (343) |
Invested
$549.84
Value
$575.28
PnL
+$25.44
Record
—
2-1 (3)
Relaccsed<$100Invested
$68.41
Value
$69.56
PnL
+$1.15
Record
—
4-1 (5)
Invested
$39.34
Value
$42.79
PnL
+$3.45
Record
41%
3007-4413 (7420)
Invested
$7.62
Value
$19.32
PnL
+$11.7
Record
28%
2449-6153 (8602)
Invested
$4.24
Value
$1.39
PnL
-$2.85
Record
23%
80-263 (343)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.6¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.