Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 100¢ · $856 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$856.1
$6.74
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4874h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 nicoco89 | Noavg 83¢ | $740.19 | $821.09 | +$80.9 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
CO cowcat<$100 | No | $33.98 | $33.98 | +$5.24 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
AL alex20011CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.7¢ | $11.88 | $0.87 | -$11.01 | 48% 3491-3823 (7314) |
GA gatorrqwCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $66 | $0.15 | -$65.85 | 55% 170-139 (309) |
 GohstCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20¢ | $2.55 | $0.01 | -$2.54 | 49% 738-770 (1508) |
nicoco89Invested
$740.19
Value
$821.09
PnL
+$80.9
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
Invested
$33.98
Value
$33.98
PnL
+$5.24
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$11.88
Value
$0.87
PnL
-$11.01
Record
48%
3491-3823 (7314)
Invested
$66
Value
$0.15
PnL
-$65.85
Record
55%
170-139 (309)
GohstCTR<$100Invested
$2.55
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$2.54
Record
49%
738-770 (1508)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.