Consensus PnL $29K · win rate 49% (124–127, n=251) · hand-picked wallet · holds 3 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$28.8K
Record
124W / 127L
Win Rate
49.0%
of 251 settled
Batting Avg
82.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1850
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
1,575
Markets
331
Volume
$52.1K
Top consensus positions
3 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 3 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Yes $196 · now 98¢ · in at 34¢with the consensus (56% of 9)
- Will US unemployment reach at least 7.0% in 2026?No $53 · now 98¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (100% of 6)
- Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?Yes $27 · now 27¢ · in at 40¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
247 settled consensus markets · held side won 48% at an average entry of 26¢- Geopolitics
+25 pts
side won 52% of 121 · avg entry 27¢
ROI +13%
- Elections
+30 pts
side won 56% of 43 · avg entry 26¢
ROI +31%
- Mentions
+27 pts
side won 45% of 11 · avg entry 18¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 57%(won 31% of 140)
- 30–50¢: 43%(won 70% of 107)
- 50–70¢: 0%
- 70¢ and up: 0%
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.