Will Nate Sheppard be the 2026 D1 Rushing Yards Leader?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 89¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 4, 2027

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Mon, Jan 4, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

$16.16

Smart Money Entry

81.2¢ → 89.1¢

+10% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,287

Combined PnL+$28.86

Yes2 traders

Total Value$10.44

Total Shares56

Combined PnL-$12.71

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c	Noavg 81.9¢	$1.4K	$968.53	+$55.98	67% 636-317 (953)
XT xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100	Noavg 63.1¢	$458.63	$200.21	+$9.05	35% 18059-33813 (51872)
└ No leg	Noavg 63.1¢	$113.93	$146.82	-$2.21
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 31.8¢	$90.92	$53.39	+$11.27
Istaroth	Noavg 72¢	$121.59	$72.55	-$29.75	15% 459-2699 (3158)
ND ndb1<$100	Noavg 75¢	$2.14	$19.43	+$2.64	66% 936-492 (1428)
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100	Yesavg 17.9¢	$30.02	$5.78	-$9.62	18% 333-1526 (1859)
WA WarriorHCTR<$100	Yesavg 18.8¢	$4.7	$4.66	-$3.09	17% 1213-5822 (7035)

0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c

Invested

$1,350.28

Value

$968.53

PnL

+$55.98

Record

67%

636-317 (953)

xtxpleasecallmeARB<$100

Invested

$458.63

Value

$200.21

PnL

+$9.05

Record

35%

18059-33813 (51872)

Both legs:

No$113.9363.1¢-$2.21

Yes$90.9231.8¢+$11.27

Istaroth

Invested

$121.59

Value

$72.55

PnL

-$29.75

Record

15%

459-2699 (3158)

ndb1<$100

Invested

$2.14

Value

$19.43

PnL

+$2.64

Record

66%

936-492 (1428)

SulkingCryptoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.02

Value

$5.78

PnL

-$9.62

Record

18%

333-1526 (1859)

WarriorHCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.7

Value

$4.66

PnL

-$3.09

Record

17%

1213-5822 (7035)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 89%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Mature

33h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 2

Aligned

sharpNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.6%

89.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.38

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.