Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 60¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
🔬
Research candidate
No
6
No 67%
$2.1K
$209.56
54.6¢ → 60.5¢
+11% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 60%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
627h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 bernardbulletin | Noavg 56.9¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$128.38 | 69% 987-450 (1437) |
JA jaja5050 | Noavg 41.7¢ | $205.81 | $305.51 | +$90.82 | 63% 182-109 (291) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409f | Noavg 62.8¢ | $200 | $192.45 | -$7.55 | 69% 156-69 (225) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 51.5¢ | $153.78 | $162.8 | +$9.03 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
 siickCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38.2¢ | $86.79 | $90.61 | +$3.81 | 57% 768-580 (1348) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $65.36 | $48.34 | -$14.92 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
bernardbulletinInvested
$1,151.56
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$128.38
Record
69%
987-450 (1437)
Invested
$205.81
Value
$305.51
PnL
+$90.82
Record
63%
182-109 (291)
Invested
$200
Value
$192.45
PnL
-$7.55
Record
69%
156-69 (225)
Invested
$153.78
Value
$162.8
PnL
+$9.03
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
siickCTR<$100Invested
$86.79
Value
$90.61
PnL
+$3.81
Record
57%
768-580 (1348)
Invested
$65.36
Value
$48.34
PnL
-$14.92
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.