Consensus PnL $43K · win rate 71% (126–52, n=178) · hand-picked wallet · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$43.0K
Record
126W / 52L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 178 settled
Batting Avg
63.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#707
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
9,577
Markets
332
Volume
$2.6M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 9 on the consensus side (89%)- Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?No $33K · now 77¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (79% of 56)
- Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $652 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Insurrection Act invoked by December 31?No $576 · now 87¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (89% of 10)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $308 · now 95¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?No $306 · now 60¢ · in at 42¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $154 · now 1¢ · in at 2¢with the consensus (100% of 18)
- Will the Republicans win the Oregon governor race in 2026?No $111 · now 84¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (46% of 13)
- Will Howard Lutnick leave the Trump administration before 2027?No $8 · now 87¢ · in at 52¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
229 settled consensus markets · held side won 80% at an average entry of 67¢- Politics
+19 pts
side won 90% of 31 · avg entry 71¢
ROI +12%
- Entertainment
+31 pts
side won 82% of 11 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +13%
- Economy
+13 pts
side won 63% of 19 · avg entry 50¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 13%(won 23% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 9%(won 65% of 20)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 82% of 44)
- 70¢ and up: 59%(won 95% of 135)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.