Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 56¢ · $894 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$894.37
$101.47
76¢ → 55.5¢
-27% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
485h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 78.7¢ | $471.99 | $333 | -$139 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
HA HauchnCTR | Yesavg 15.9¢ | $110.07 | $308.14 | +$198.07 | 37% 64-107 (171) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 69.4¢ | $138.02 | $134.64 | -$3.38 | 36% 16080-28084 (44164) |
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.6¢ | $67.55 | $95.1 | +$30.73 | 32% 4495-9638 (14133) |
 GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16¢ | $8.44 | $23.49 | +$15.04 | 51% 527-509 (1036) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$471.99
Value
$333
PnL
-$139
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$110.07
Value
$308.14
PnL
+$198.07
Record
37%
64-107 (171)
Invested
$138.02
Value
$134.64
PnL
-$3.38
Record
36%
16080-28084 (44164)
Invested
$67.55
Value
$95.1
PnL
+$30.73
Record
32%
4495-9638 (14133)
GenaTheBondKilIerCTR<$100Invested
$8.44
Value
$23.49
PnL
+$15.04
Record
51%
527-509 (1036)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.