Will Obafemi Hamzat win the 2027 Lagos State gubernatorial election?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 79¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 7, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.1K
$38.95
80.5¢ → 79¢
-2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Late
1509h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 80.3¢ | $544.75 | $539.54 | -$5.21 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
 FrozenParasite | Yesavg 78¢ | $30.58 | $306.08 | +$26.81 | 55% 463-373 (836) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Yesavg 86¢ | $172 | $159 | -$13 | 56% 15371-11922 (27293) |
 RememberAmalekCTR | Noavg 16.4¢ | $87.17 | $109.24 | +$22.07 | 56% 973-769 (1742) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 4¢ | $2.01 | $10.28 | +$8.27 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
Invested
$544.75
Value
$539.54
PnL
-$5.21
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
FrozenParasiteInvested
$30.58
Value
$306.08
PnL
+$26.81
Record
55%
463-373 (836)
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$172
Value
$159
PnL
-$13
Record
56%
15371-11922 (27293)
RememberAmalekCTRInvested
$87.17
Value
$109.24
PnL
+$22.07
Record
56%
973-769 (1742)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$2.01
Value
$10.28
PnL
+$8.27
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
79.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.