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3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 85¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$3.6K
$9.76
82.5¢ → 84.5¢
+2% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 tourists | Noavg 85¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | -$10.54 | 66% 427-222 (649) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 16.8¢ | $630.94 | $660.63 | -$77.66 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Noavg 75.4¢ | $389.7 | $639.14 | +$59.26 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
SH shiifoo | Noavg 82.3¢ | $152.23 | $422.74 | +$6.19 | 59% 3430-2345 (5775) |
 CarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 9¢ | $45 | $77.5 | +$32.5 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
touristsInvested
$1,816.51
Value
$1.8K
PnL
-$10.54
Record
66%
427-222 (649)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$630.94
Value
$660.63
PnL
-$77.66
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Invested
$389.7
Value
$639.14
PnL
+$59.26
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$152.23
Value
$422.74
PnL
+$6.19
Record
59%
3430-2345 (5775)
CarCTR<$100Invested
$45
Value
$77.5
PnL
+$32.5
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
84.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.