Consensus PnL $518K · win rate 74% (358–128, n=486) · was PM monthly #962 · holds 16 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$518.1K
Record
358W / 128L
Win Rate
74.0%
of 486 settled
Batting Avg
50.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#606
Source
PM monthly #962
Trades
4,512
Markets
828
Volume
$22.5M
Top consensus positions
16 in listed consensus markets · 13 of 16 on the consensus side (81%)- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $146K · now 65¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (67% of 133)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $104K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will GameStop acquire eBay?No $73K · now 95¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (97% of 30)
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?No $63K · now 70¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (76% of 92)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $60K · now 71¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?No $42K · now 97¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (39% of 76)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $42K · now 84¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?Yes $20K · now 71¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (86% of 51)
Specialties
652 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 72¢- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 75% of 204 · avg entry 72¢
ROI +1%
- Elections
+5 pts
side won 87% of 69 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +3%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 80% of 64 · avg entry 74¢
ROI −3%
Weakest: Tech — held side won 68% of 133 at an average 71¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 16%(won 7% of 105)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 39% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 63% of 57)
- 70¢ and up: 68%(won 97% of 446)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.