Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will OpenAI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?

5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $62 held · ends Dec 31

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Dec 31, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 83%

Total Value

$62.15

Combined PnL

-$421.78

Smart Money Entry

1.2¢ → 0.1¢

-88% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes5 traders

Total Value$58.34

Total Shares38,892

Combined PnL-$421.93

No1 trader

Total Value$3.81

Total Shares4

Combined PnL+$0.15

Yes — 83%No — 17%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
Contentious-DinnerdateCTR	Yesavg 1.2¢	$290.39	$36.79	-$253.6	50% 415-417 (832)
0X 0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR	Yesavg 1¢	$105.56	$15.1	-$84.29	32% 4495-9638 (14133)
0X 0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.2¢	$93.42	$6.02	-$82.55	45% 112-138 (250)
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100	Noavg 95.9¢	$3.66	$3.81	+$0.15	45% 3592-4351 (7943)
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.1¢	$1.9	$0.26	-$1.66	69% 156-69 (225)
WO wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$0	$0.16	+$0.16	33% 6263-12990 (19253)

Contentious-DinnerdateCTR

Yes

Invested

$290.39

Value

$36.79

PnL

-$253.6

Record

50%

415-417 (832)

0x43cb4Ae1f4dDC9E671486C79c9F40A6fd98B84Df-1761656284271CTR

Yes

Invested

$105.56

Value

$15.1

PnL

-$84.29

Record

32%

4495-9638 (14133)

0x2b670A311561DcAF741D8155451774D3Fa7fb814-1778467735876CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$93.42

Value

$6.02

PnL

-$82.55

Record

45%

112-138 (250)

LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100

Invested

$3.66

Value

$3.81

PnL

+$0.15

Record

45%

3592-4351 (7943)

0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.9

Value

$0.26

PnL

-$1.66

Record

69%

156-69 (225)

wokerjoesleeperCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$0.16

PnL

+$0.16

Record

33%

6263-12990 (19253)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Late

4875h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

31 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on No) and the top 1000 (4 on Yes) disagree here.

whaleYes 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrYes 80% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 50% · 2

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 100% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.2%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8264.90

Max Loss

-$100.00

8364.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.