Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 25¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$1.9K
$1.1K
10.3¢ → 24.8¢
+141% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 25%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
1581h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
24 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FO FolletinCTR | Yesavg 8.4¢ | $373.33 | $1.1K | +$729.56 | 69% 423-188 (611) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 11¢ | $316.74 | $688.81 | +$395.03 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 70.1¢ | $79.41 | $88.54 | +$9.13 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
AL Albert 1953CTR<$100 | Yesavg 29.4¢ | $78.1 | $63.84 | -$12.27 | 50% 1093-1094 (2187) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22.6¢ | $31.88 | $21.42 | +$1.79 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
Invested
$373.33
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$729.56
Record
69%
423-188 (611)
Invested
$316.74
Value
$688.81
PnL
+$395.03
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$79.41
Value
$88.54
PnL
+$9.13
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$78.1
Value
$63.84
PnL
-$12.27
Record
50%
1093-1094 (2187)
Invested
$31.88
Value
$21.42
PnL
+$1.79
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
24.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.