Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 96¢ · $6K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$6.2K
$732.92
75.6¢ → 95.7¢
+27% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
191h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 75.8¢ | $3.8K | $4.8K | +$992.5 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
 elmcap2 | Noavg 74.8¢ | $916.54 | $1.2K | +$254.71 | 89% 1665-205 (1870) |
 occasionalAwarenessCTR | Yesavg 18.8¢ | $678.3 | $140.51 | -$537.8 | 52% 284-262 (546) |
 vinii<$100 | Noavg 71.8¢ | $31.58 | $46.48 | +$14.89 | 74% 2792-1004 (3796) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $16.59 | $25.2 | +$8.61 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
Invested
$3,790
Value
$4.8K
PnL
+$992.5
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
elmcap2Invested
$916.54
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$254.71
Record
89%
1665-205 (1870)
occasionalAwarenessCTRInvested
$678.3
Value
$140.51
PnL
-$537.8
Record
52%
284-262 (546)
vinii<$100Invested
$31.58
Value
$46.48
PnL
+$14.89
Record
74%
2792-1004 (3796)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$16.59
Value
$25.2
PnL
+$8.61
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.