Consensus PnL $1.0M · win rate 59% (271–186, n=457) · was PM monthly #989 · holds 27 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.0M
Record
271W / 186L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 457 settled
Batting Avg
53.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1234
Source
PM monthly #989
Trades
2,074
Markets
692
Volume
$59.7M
Top consensus positions
27 in listed consensus markets · 14 of 27 on the consensus side (52%)- Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?No $56K · now 93¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (79% of 19)
- Will Anthropic have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $41K · now 45¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?Yes $37K · now 82¢ · in at 44¢with the consensus (67% of 15)
- Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?Yes $36K · now 66¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (54% of 13)
- Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?No $27K · now 98¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?No $18K · now 47¢ · in at 48¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?Yes $11K · now 44¢ · in at 30¢with the consensus (68% of 19)
- Plague pandemic in 2026?No $8.1K · now 98¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
Specialties
439 settled consensus markets · held side won 56% at an average entry of 54¢- Politics
+6 pts
side won 53% of 49 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +3%
- Culture
+22 pts
side won 90% of 10 · avg entry 68¢
ROI +33%
- Finance
+13 pts
side won 76% of 17 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 44% of 130 at an average 44¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 36%(won 6% of 157)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 41% of 44)
- 50–70¢: 9%(won 64% of 39)
- 70¢ and up: 45%(won 96% of 199)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.