Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (91%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 9.0¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 5, 2027

Yes9¢No91¢Ends Tue, Jan 5, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$1.7K

Combined PnL

$-1.3K

Smart Money Entry

18.2¢ → 9¢

-51% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes9%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares15,484

Combined PnL$-1.3K

No3 traders

Total Value$653.2

Total Shares718

Combined PnL+$19.33

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
occasionalAwarenessCTR	Yesavg 18.2¢	$2.4K	$1.1K	$-1.3K	52% 284-262 (546)
balthazar	Noavg 70.8¢	$413.73	$432.68	+$18.94	61% 21345-13641 (34986)
HI hithitfar	Noavg 82.7¢	$133.42	$215.97	+$0.24	58% 640-469 (1109)
PMTraderAdam<$100	Noavg 87¢	$4.35	$4.55	+$0.15	77% 830-249 (1079)
viniiCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$1.84	$0.52	-$1.33	74% 2792-1004 (3796)

occasionalAwarenessCTR

Yes

Invested

$2,409.42

Value

$1.1K

PnL

$-1.3K

Record

52%

284-262 (546)

balthazar

Invested

$413.73

Value

$432.68

PnL

+$18.94

Record

61%

21345-13641 (34986)

hithitfar

Invested

$133.42

Value

$215.97

PnL

+$0.24

Record

58%

640-469 (1109)

PMTraderAdam<$100

Invested

$4.35

Value

$4.55

PnL

+$0.15

Record

77%

830-249 (1079)

viniiCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.84

Value

$0.52

PnL

-$1.33

Record

74%

2792-1004 (3796)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 9%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 91%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance10.4%

9.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$865.25

Max Loss

-$100.00

965.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.