Consensus PnL $29K · win rate 83% (693–143, n=836) · hand-picked wallet · holds 54 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$29.0K
Record
693W / 143L
Win Rate
83.0%
of 836 settled
Batting Avg
61.8%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#365
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
17,015
Markets
1,256
Volume
$1.2M
Top consensus positions
54 in listed consensus markets · 47 of 54 on the consensus side (87%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $6.7K · now 84¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (83% of 133)
- Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026?Yes $4.9K · now 99¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (94% of 47)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $3.8K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $3.3K · now 95¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $2.6K · now 66¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (68% of 131)
- Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Yes $2.1K · now 94¢ · in at 85¢with the consensus (72% of 25)
- Cuban regime falls in 2026?No $1.9K · now 92¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (91% of 22)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.6K · now 71¢ · in at 63¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
Specialties
932 settled consensus markets · held side won 81% at an average entry of 76¢- Entertainment
+12 pts
side won 86% of 65 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +5%
- Politics
+6 pts
side won 85% of 87 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +3%
- Tech
+6 pts
side won 80% of 76 · avg entry 74¢
ROI +7%
Weakest: Mentions — held side won 52% of 42 at an average 57¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 11%(won 17% of 106)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 50% of 60)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 71% of 92)
- 70¢ and up: 72%(won 96% of 674)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.