Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 5, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$2.2K
$-5.5K
45.5¢ → 7.5¢
-84% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 occasionalAwarenessCTR | Yesavg 46¢ | $6.9K | $1.2K | $-5.7K | 52% 284-262 (546) |
 PMTraderAdam | Noavg 75.1¢ | $752.07 | $911.08 | +$159.01 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.8¢ | $20.64 | $18.99 | -$1.64 | 58% 640-469 (1109) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 5¢ | $1.47 | $2.94 | +$1.47 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
DI Dimpled-FoalCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $1.17 | $0.94 | -$0.23 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
occasionalAwarenessCTRInvested
$6,928.84
Value
$1.2K
PnL
$-5.7K
Record
52%
284-262 (546)
PMTraderAdamInvested
$752.07
Value
$911.08
PnL
+$159.01
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
Invested
$20.64
Value
$18.99
PnL
-$1.64
Record
58%
640-469 (1109)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$1.47
Value
$2.94
PnL
+$1.47
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$1.17
Value
$0.94
PnL
-$0.23
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.