Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (95%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Oura not IPO before January 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 4.9¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 60%
$1.3K
$501.52
30.4¢ → 4.9¢
-84% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 95%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Fresh
3h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 LornaPredicts | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $172.09 | $914.74 | +$931.19 | 21% 2284-8698 (10982) |
 YoungAlphaGoat | Yesavg 2¢ | $0.13 | $158.54 | +$155.67 | 45% 383-477 (860) |
0X 0xc7D02944A76B9F83B199e9090ECC92C82d241F8a-1776944395495CTR | Noavg 12.9¢ | $1.4K | $130.84 | +$160.51 | 57% 16832-12621 (29453) |
FU FulguratorCTR | Noavg 75¢ | $794.25 | $51.36 | -$742.89 | 92% 61-5 (66) |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023CTR<$100 | Noavg 14.2¢ | $4.22 | $0.07 | -$2.95 | 37% 758-1274 (2032) |
LornaPredictsInvested
$172.09
Value
$914.74
PnL
+$931.19
Record
21%
2284-8698 (10982)
YoungAlphaGoatInvested
$0.13
Value
$158.54
PnL
+$155.67
Record
45%
383-477 (860)
Invested
$1,385.13
Value
$130.84
PnL
+$160.51
Record
57%
16832-12621 (29453)
Invested
$794.25
Value
$51.36
PnL
-$742.89
Record
92%
61-5 (66)
Invested
$4.22
Value
$0.07
PnL
-$2.95
Record
37%
758-1274 (2032)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
4.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.