Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (93%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Philadelphia Eagles win the 2026 NFC East?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 7.5¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 4, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$1.6K
-$339.72
23.7¢ → 7.5¢
-68% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 8%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 93%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
644h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 76.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.1K | +$323.48 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 19.7¢ | $699.23 | $283.67 | -$433.23 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Noavg 59.8¢ | $117.99 | $183.99 | +$66.19 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 StudyPredictionCTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $380 | $76.59 | -$291.99 | 53% 4588-4006 (8594) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $2.22 | $2.67 | -$4.18 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
Invested
$1,240.73
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$323.48
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$699.23
Value
$283.67
PnL
-$433.23
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$117.99
Value
$183.99
PnL
+$66.19
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
StudyPredictionCTRInvested
$380
Value
$76.59
PnL
-$291.99
Record
53%
4588-4006 (8594)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$2.22
Value
$2.67
PnL
-$4.18
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
7.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.