Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 99¢ · $4K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$3.9K
$825.05
77.6¢ → 99.4¢
+28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 -Yang- | Yesavg 75.5¢ | $2.7K | $3.5K | +$839.79 | 82% 275-61 (336) |
TP tphhh | Yesavg 99.7¢ | $332.33 | $331.33 | -$1 | 91% 631-60 (691) |
8D 8dcc906a9b<$100 | Yesavg 77.9¢ | $18.27 | $20.6 | +$2.32 | 32% 50-104 (154) |
 yen4uCTR<$100 | Noavg 11.7¢ | $16.35 | $0.84 | -$15.52 | 86% 809-136 (945) |
SE SeniorLaghettoCTR<$100 | Noavg 1.6¢ | $0.86 | $0.32 | -$0.54 | 69% 404-180 (584) |
-Yang-Invested
$2,658.81
Value
$3.5K
PnL
+$839.79
Record
82%
275-61 (336)
Invested
$332.33
Value
$331.33
PnL
-$1
Record
91%
631-60 (691)
Invested
$18.27
Value
$20.6
PnL
+$2.32
Record
32%
50-104 (154)
yen4uCTR<$100Invested
$16.35
Value
$0.84
PnL
-$15.52
Record
86%
809-136 (945)
Invested
$0.86
Value
$0.32
PnL
-$0.54
Record
69%
404-180 (584)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.