Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 41% (20–29, n=49) · was PM monthly #964 · holds 7 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$16.6K
Record
20W / 29L
Win Rate
41.0%
of 49 settled
Batting Avg
83.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2091
Source
PM monthly #964
Trades
493
Markets
180
Volume
$243.5K
Top consensus positions
7 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 7 on the consensus side (29%)- Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by December 31?Yes $1.7K · now 13¢ · in at 33¢against the consensus (No)
- US charges Hormuz fees by December 31, 2026?Yes $435 · now 4¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?Yes $69 · now 14¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Dilution of Iranian Uranium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes $64 · now 14¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?Yes $21 · now 99¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Yes $17 · now 7¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Predict.fun launch a token by March 31, 2027?Yes $15 · now 99¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
Specialties
101 settled consensus markets · held side won 40% at an average entry of 31¢- Tech
+49 pts
side won 90% of 20 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +55%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 22% of 63 at an average 24¢ entry (−2 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 65%(won 14% of 66)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 79% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 8%(won 88% of 8)
- 70¢ and up: 13%(won 100% of 13)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.