Consensus PnL $26K · win rate 81% (278–64, n=342) · was PM monthly #878 · holds 26 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$26.5K
Record
278W / 64L
Win Rate
81.0%
of 342 settled
Batting Avg
62.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#408
Source
PM monthly #878
Trades
151
Markets
390
Volume
$416.5K
Top consensus positions
26 in listed consensus markets · 24 of 26 on the consensus side (92%)- Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes $23K · now 99¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes $14K · now 98¢ · in at 66¢against the consensus (No)
- Predict.fun FDV above $2B one day after launch?Yes $4.8K · now 17¢ · in at 7¢with the consensus (50% of 8)
- Will Predict.fun launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes $4.0K · now 98¢ · in at 36¢with the consensus (80% of 10)
- Will Predict.fun launch a token by June 30, 2027?Yes $3.5K · now 99¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31?No $3.5K · now 89¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (55% of 38)
- Predict.fun FDV above $1.5B one day after launch?Yes $2.4K · now 24¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (33% of 9)
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?No $2.0K · now 100¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (59% of 22)
Specialties
317 settled consensus markets · held side won 92% at an average entry of 83¢- Finance
+22 pts
side won 100% of 25 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +19%
- Crypto
+9 pts
side won 91% of 173 · avg entry 82¢
ROI +10%
- Geopolitics
+9 pts
side won 97% of 90 · avg entry 87¢
ROI +8%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 0%(won 0% of 1)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 25% of 12)
- 50–70¢: 11%(won 81% of 36)
- 70¢ and up: 85%(won 97% of 268)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.