Will Rabby launch a token by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 93¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$2.7K
-$16.03
91.8¢ → 93¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1800h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhutton | Noavg 92.1¢ | $2.6K | $2.6K | +$2.45 | 68% 335-158 (493) |
 XieGuangKun<$100 | Noavg 66¢ | $22.68 | $31.95 | +$9.28 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 4.8¢ | $14.3 | $20.65 | +$6.35 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 13¢ | $12.23 | $13.99 | -$34.42 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 PaddyAlpha<$100 | Noavg 91.1¢ | $12.71 | $13.02 | +$0.31 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
alanhuttonInvested
$2,629.45
Value
$2.6K
PnL
+$2.45
Record
68%
335-158 (493)
XieGuangKun<$100Invested
$22.68
Value
$31.95
PnL
+$9.28
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$14.3
Value
$20.65
PnL
+$6.35
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
Invested
$12.23
Value
$13.99
PnL
-$34.42
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
PaddyAlpha<$100Invested
$12.71
Value
$13.02
PnL
+$0.31
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.