Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (77%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Russia capture all of Bilytske by December 31?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 24¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
No
5
No 80%
$2.4K
-$112.33
35.6¢ → 23.5¢
-34% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 24%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 77%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Late
950h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 DumplingBMF | Yesavg 47.4¢ | $821.2 | $1.3K | +$464.95 | 68% 1830-849 (2679) |
 NiceDuckBroCTR | Noavg 32¢ | $959.46 | $720 | -$269.45 | 65% 335-177 (512) |
JO JoeBlack01CTR | Noavg 39.4¢ | $387.82 | $236.53 | -$161.14 | 60% 474-313 (787) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Noavg 48.4¢ | $230.32 | $114.19 | -$120.89 | 50% 970-988 (1958) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR | Noavg 46.1¢ | $136.63 | $24.19 | -$25.79 | 76% 11357-3525 (14882) |
DumplingBMFInvested
$821.2
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$464.95
Record
68%
1830-849 (2679)
NiceDuckBroCTRInvested
$959.46
Value
$720
PnL
-$269.45
Record
65%
335-177 (512)
Invested
$387.82
Value
$236.53
PnL
-$161.14
Record
60%
474-313 (787)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$230.32
Value
$114.19
PnL
-$120.89
Record
50%
970-988 (1958)
Invested
$136.63
Value
$24.19
PnL
-$25.79
Record
76%
11357-3525 (14882)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.