Consensus PnL $77K · win rate 59% (298–207, n=505) · hand-picked wallet · holds 31 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$77.3K
Record
298W / 207L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 505 settled
Batting Avg
64.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1230
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
30,882
Markets
927
Volume
$3.3M
Top consensus positions
31 in listed consensus markets · 22 of 31 on the consensus side (71%)- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $41K · now 90¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $11K · now 90¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $7.3K · now 95¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (79% of 106)
- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?No $6.0K · now 91¢ · in at 67¢with the consensus (50% of 12)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $5.2K · now 96¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $4.3K · now 74¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $3.9K · now 44¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?No $3.1K · now 71¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
Specialties
620 settled consensus markets · held side won 68% at an average entry of 60¢- Geopolitics
+10 pts
side won 76% of 413 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +6%
- Elections
+7 pts
side won 63% of 49 · avg entry 56¢
ROI +2%
- Politics
+5 pts
side won 67% of 30 · avg entry 62¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 24% of 49 at an average 29¢ entry (−5 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 12% of 142)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 47% of 81)
- 50–70¢: 14%(won 78% of 89)
- 70¢ and up: 50%(won 97% of 308)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.