Consensus PnL $252K · win rate 66% (1268–664, n=1932) · PM monthly #534 · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$252.0K
Record
1268W / 664L
Win Rate
66.0%
of 1932 settled
Batting Avg
68.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#884
Source
PM monthly #534 + pinned
Trades
68,103
Markets
2,854
Volume
$11.0M
Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 21 on the consensus side (71%)- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $23K · now 90¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?No $3.1K · now 70¢ · in at 59¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by December 31?Yes $2.3K · now 23¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (57% of 7)
- Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No $2.1K · now 95¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (63% of 9)
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes $2.0K · now 93¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.9K · now 9¢ · in at 34¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?Yes $1.5K · now 33¢ · in at 50¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Russia capture Dobropillia by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 20¢ · in at 17¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
2,168 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 65¢- Esports
+11 pts
side won 66% of 931 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +9%
- Geopolitics
+3 pts
side won 82% of 620 · avg entry 78¢
ROI +4%
- MMA
+4 pts
side won 62% of 213 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +6%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 74% of 69 at an average 78¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 8%(won 13% of 174)
- 30–50¢: 21%(won 50% of 446)
- 50–70¢: 27%(won 68% of 592)
- 70¢ and up: 44%(won 94% of 956)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.