Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 67¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$8.9K
$-1.2K
Research grade
NeutralNo at 67%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL Gladius7 | Noavg 69.7¢ | $7.4K | $7.1K | -$232.08 | 48% 90-98 (188) |
 DumplingBMFCTR | Yesavg 49.8¢ | $2.3K | $1.5K | -$783.07 | 68% 1830-849 (2679) |
 NiceDuckBroCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $242.23 | $195.04 | -$50.14 | 65% 335-177 (512) |
 smellyEllieCTR | Yesavg 71.7¢ | $202.4 | $93.19 | -$109.21 | 50% 970-988 (1958) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34¢ | $25.76 | $15.1 | -$0.76 | 39% 1781-2832 (4613) |
Invested
$7,401
Value
$7.1K
PnL
-$232.08
Record
48%
90-98 (188)
DumplingBMFCTRInvested
$2,252.99
Value
$1.5K
PnL
-$783.07
Record
68%
1830-849 (2679)
NiceDuckBroCTRInvested
$242.23
Value
$195.04
PnL
-$50.14
Record
65%
335-177 (512)
smellyEllieCTRInvested
$202.4
Value
$93.19
PnL
-$109.21
Record
50%
970-988 (1958)
Invested
$25.76
Value
$15.1
PnL
-$0.76
Record
39%
1781-2832 (4613)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.