Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 69¢ · $8K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$8.5K
$478.2
62.5¢ → 68.5¢
+10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-15 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 83%
Freshness
Late
505h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 83% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL Gladius7 | Noavg 61.9¢ | $4.4K | $5.1K | +$330.68 | 48% 90-98 (188) |
AL alwaysOn | Noavg 64.4¢ | $1.8K | $2.0K | +$59.45 | 77% 632-185 (817) |
KR KrackenSruster | Noavg 62.3¢ | $1.2K | $1.4K | +$85 | 66% 487-255 (742) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.8¢ | $37.59 | $37.01 | -$0.58 | 56% 14240-11046 (25286) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $2.27 | $5.93 | +$3.66 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
Invested
$4,401
Value
$5.1K
PnL
+$330.68
Record
48%
90-98 (188)
Invested
$1,782.32
Value
$2.0K
PnL
+$59.45
Record
77%
632-185 (817)
Invested
$1,245
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$85
Record
66%
487-255 (742)
Invested
$37.59
Value
$37.01
PnL
-$0.58
Record
56%
14240-11046 (25286)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$2.27
Value
$5.93
PnL
+$3.66
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.