Consensus PnL $29K · win rate 78% (423–117, n=540) · hand-picked wallet · holds 33 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$29.0K
Record
423W / 117L
Win Rate
78.0%
of 540 settled
Batting Avg
60.1%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#491
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
15,040
Markets
934
Volume
$2.0M
Top consensus positions
33 in listed consensus markets · 28 of 33 on the consensus side (85%)- Netanyahu out by end of 2026?No $19K · now 83¢ · in at 56¢with the consensus (58% of 33)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $15K · now 84¢ · in at 80¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $15K · now 89¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- US strike on Cuba by December 31?No $14K · now 92¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (64% of 34)
- Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?No $13K · now 91¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (59% of 17)
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No $13K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (78% of 37)
- Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?Yes $8.9K · now 76¢ · in at 70¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?No $8.2K · now 75¢ · in at 70¢against the consensus (Yes)
Specialties
721 settled consensus markets · held side won 83% at an average entry of 80¢- Politics
+4 pts
side won 84% of 162 · avg entry 80¢
ROI −1%
- Entertainment
+9 pts
side won 63% of 35 · avg entry 54¢
ROI +6%
- Tech
+7 pts
side won 90% of 20 · avg entry 83¢
ROI +4%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 71% of 17 at an average 73¢ entry (−3 pts against the price), ROI +4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 10%(won 7% of 72)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 36% of 25)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 65% of 49)
- 70¢ and up: 80%(won 95% of 575)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.