Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by December 31, 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 88¢ · $7K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$7.0K
$214.79
54.6¢ → 87.5¢
+60% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 88%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
27 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GL Gladius7 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $2.7K | $3.7K | +$950.65 | 48% 90-98 (188) |
JO JoeBlack01 | Noavg 42.7¢ | $694.96 | $1.4K | +$664.23 | 60% 474-313 (787) |
SL SlenderMan | Noavg 46¢ | $605.43 | $1.1K | +$513.3 | 72% 257-102 (359) |
 DumplingBMFCTR | Yesavg 51.7¢ | $2.6K | $757.83 | $-1.8K | 68% 1830-849 (2679) |
 PorxCTR | Yesavg 25.3¢ | $227.99 | $135 | -$79.5 | 66% 1482-769 (2251) |
Invested
$2,720
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$950.65
Record
48%
90-98 (188)
Invested
$694.96
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$664.23
Record
60%
474-313 (787)
Invested
$605.43
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$513.3
Record
72%
257-102 (359)
DumplingBMFCTRInvested
$2,591.73
Value
$757.83
PnL
$-1.8K
Record
68%
1830-849 (2679)
PorxCTRInvested
$227.99
Value
$135
PnL
-$79.5
Record
66%
1482-769 (2251)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.