Consensus PnL $509K · win rate 77% (228–68, n=296) · PM monthly #450 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$508.8K
Record
228W / 68L
Win Rate
77.0%
of 296 settled
Batting Avg
60.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#519
Source
PM monthly #450
Trades
3,343
Markets
477
Volume
$16.3M
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 19 of 19 on the consensus side (100%)- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $118K · now 84¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- China x Philippines military clash before 2027?No $75K · now 81¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (71% of 18)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $34K · now 90¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $29K · now 72¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (67% of 67)
- Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?No $19K · now 84¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?No $18K · now 89¢ · in at 78¢with the consensus (57% of 54)
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $16K · now 90¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?Yes $11K · now 93¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (60% of 20)
Specialties
325 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 72¢- Soccer
+6 pts
side won 41% of 22 · avg entry 35¢
ROI −5%
- Entertainment
+10 pts
side won 74% of 19 · avg entry 64¢
ROI +10%
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 81% of 209 at an average 81¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 18%(won 10% of 60)
- 30–50¢: 8%(won 50% of 26)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 50% of 20)
- 70¢ and up: 67%(won 94% of 219)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.