Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 97¢ · $43K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
$42.8K
$2.9K
89.3¢ → 97.3¢
+9% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 OraculumNobius | Noavg 89.8¢ | $24.0K | $39.0K | +$4.2K | 90% 5487-612 (6099) |
VO vovatoxic | Noavg 82.1¢ | $2.0K | $2.4K | +$364.39 | 49% 70-74 (144) |
BI BikesAreTheBikes | Noavg 86¢ | $784.21 | $888.87 | +$104.65 | 39% 1781-2832 (4613) |
HO hopedieslastCTR | Yesavg 14.9¢ | $2.1K | $388.37 | $-1.7K | 59% 118-81 (199) |
TT tttt123<$100 | Noavg 87¢ | $87 | $97.25 | +$10.25 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
OraculumNobiusInvested
$23,957.67
Value
$39.0K
PnL
+$4.2K
Record
90%
5487-612 (6099)
Invested
$2,002.43
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$364.39
Record
49%
70-74 (144)
Invested
$784.21
Value
$888.87
PnL
+$104.65
Record
39%
1781-2832 (4613)
Invested
$2,103.81
Value
$388.37
PnL
$-1.7K
Record
59%
118-81 (199)
Invested
$87
Value
$97.25
PnL
+$10.25
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.