Consensus PnL $128K · win rate 43% (46–61, n=107) · hand-picked wallet · holds 10 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$128.5K
Record
46W / 61L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 107 settled
Batting Avg
72.2%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2048
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
1,640
Markets
167
Volume
$624.5K
Top consensus positions
10 in listed consensus markets · 7 of 10 on the consensus side (70%)- Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?No $12K · now 97¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (92% of 50)
- Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $2.7K · now 73¢ · in at 54¢with the consensus (77% of 78)
- Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?No $2.4K · now 97¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?No $1.9K · now 96¢ · in at 49¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 14¢ · in at 45¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?No $1.4K · now 95¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (80% of 15)
- US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?No $1.3K · now 97¢ · in at 75¢with the consensus (57% of 29)
- Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Yes $1.2K · now 20¢ · in at 9¢with the consensus (94% of 34)
Specialties
106 settled consensus markets · held side won 72% at an average entry of 47¢- Soccer
+40 pts
side won 75% of 32 · avg entry 35¢
ROI +25%
- Geopolitics
+23 pts
side won 88% of 42 · avg entry 65¢
ROI +29%
- Esports
+5 pts
side won 29% of 21 · avg entry 24¢
ROI +11%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 28%(won 47% of 30)
- 30–50¢: 29%(won 68% of 31)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 86% of 22)
- 70¢ and up: 22%(won 96% of 23)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.