Consensus PnL $3.6K · win rate 90% (5343–569, n=5912) · hand-picked wallet · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$3.6K
Record
5343W / 569L
Win Rate
90.0%
of 5912 settled
Batting Avg
61.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#232
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
6,970
Markets
6,175
Volume
$9.1M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 9 of 9 on the consensus side (100%)- Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?No $82K · now 98¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (92% of 25)
- Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?No $39K · now 97¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (80% of 5)
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?No $14K · now 94¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (78% of 37)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $5.0K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $4.8K · now 95¢ · in at 93¢with the consensus (87% of 158)
- Will the 2026 Midterm Elections happen as scheduled?Yes $2.0K · now 99¢ · in at 98¢with the consensus (81% of 26)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $1.9K · now 96¢ · in at 95¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will the Democrats win the Georgia Senate race in 2026?Yes $976 · now 98¢ · in at 96¢with the consensus (69% of 26)
Specialties
4,922 settled consensus markets · held side won 98% at an average entry of 98¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where OraculumNobius's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Weather — held side won 99% of 1407 at an average 99¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 1%(won 2% of 59)
- 30–50¢: 0%(won 38% of 8)
- 50–70¢: 0%(won 80% of 10)
- 70¢ and up: 98%(won 100% of 4845)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.