Consensus PnL $223K · win rate 59% (104–72, n=176) · was PM monthly #951 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$223.1K
Record
104W / 72L
Win Rate
59.0%
of 176 settled
Batting Avg
45.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1247
Source
PM monthly #951 + pinned
Trades
11,681
Markets
253
Volume
$5.1M
Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 15 of 19 on the consensus side (79%)- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $81K · now 90¢ · in at 48¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?No $64K · now 90¢ · in at 83¢with the consensus (66% of 32)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?No $39K · now 87¢ · in at 81¢with the consensus (52% of 26)
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?No $33K · now 96¢ · in at 51¢with the consensus (88% of 80)
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?No $28K · now 84¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (83% of 132)
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?No $16K · now 92¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (67% of 18)
- Will any Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?No $7.9K · now 87¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (43% of 7)
- Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31?No $7.8K · now 84¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (62% of 13)
Specialties
193 settled consensus markets · held side won 57% at an average entry of 57¢No topic with 10 or more settled markets where hopedieslast's side won clearly (2 points or more) more often than its price implied.
Weakest: Geopolitics — held side won 57% of 184 at an average 57¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +6%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 23%(won 11% of 45)
- 30–50¢: 19%(won 33% of 36)
- 50–70¢: 19%(won 68% of 37)
- 70¢ and up: 39%(won 91% of 75)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.