Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (95%). 4 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Seattle Seahawks visit the White House in 2026?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (80%) · Yes at 5.1¢ · $184 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 80%
$183.7
-$362.97
39.9¢ → 5.1¢
-87% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 5%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)Underdog side (market favors No 95%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
4875h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 2B9S | Noavg 5¢ | $5.9 | $111.75 | +$105.67 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.3¢ | $19.34 | $31.53 | +$12.19 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
 siickCTR | Yesavg 78.4¢ | $398.28 | $25.02 | -$345 | 57% 768-580 (1348) |
PU PutsOnPeaceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.3¢ | $89.04 | $11.15 | -$76.84 | 66% 955-482 (1437) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 79.4¢ | $63.25 | $4.25 | -$58.99 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
2B9SInvested
$5.9
Value
$111.75
PnL
+$105.67
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$19.34
Value
$31.53
PnL
+$12.19
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
siickCTRInvested
$398.28
Value
$25.02
PnL
-$345
Record
57%
768-580 (1348)
Invested
$89.04
Value
$11.15
PnL
-$76.84
Record
66%
955-482 (1437)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$63.25
Value
$4.25
PnL
-$58.99
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
5.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.