Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (90%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will T1 be number 1 on the end of year Global Power Rankings?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 10¢ · $194 held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
1 arb excluded
$194.25
$20.65
Research grade
AvoidYes at 10%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 90%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
15h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 AnjunARB<$100 | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $92.31 | $126.24 | +$33.93 | 55% 4992-4061 (9053) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 6.5¢ | $54.98 | $88.51 | +$33.51 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 88.6¢ | $37.31 | $37.73 | +$0.42 | |
 LornaPredictsCTR | Yesavg 3.9¢ | $1.0K | $34.84 | +$21.63 | 20% 2375-9305 (11680) |
GI GingerMcKenna<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $30 | $26.88 | -$0.72 | 39% 3003-4777 (7780) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11.1¢ | $4.81 | $4.5 | -$0.31 | 45% 13352-16261 (29613) |
JO JordanMooney<$100 | Noavg 92¢ | $1.49 | $1.45 | -$0.04 | 36% 1961-3488 (5449) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yesavg 3.2¢ | $0.04 | $0.12 | +$0.08 | 43% 3029-3982 (7011) |
AnjunARB<$100Invested
$92.31
Value
$126.24
PnL
+$33.93
Record
55%
4992-4061 (9053)
Both legs:
LornaPredictsCTRInvested
$1,045.03
Value
$34.84
PnL
+$21.63
Record
20%
2375-9305 (11680)
Invested
$30
Value
$26.88
PnL
-$0.72
Record
39%
3003-4777 (7780)
Invested
$4.81
Value
$4.5
PnL
-$0.31
Record
45%
13352-16261 (29613)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$1.45
PnL
-$0.04
Record
36%
1961-3488 (5449)
Invested
$0.04
Value
$0.12
PnL
+$0.08
Record
43%
3029-3982 (7011)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
10.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.