Will Tanoa Sasraku win the Turner Prize 2026?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 79¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$1.6K
$264.56
61.2¢ → 78.5¢
+28% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 79%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
646h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x831449c4b94607dd3367023c61525aea99a90b88-1792449496754 | Noavg 67¢ | $6.09 | $725.35 | +$99.27 | — 7-2 (9) |
 EsperanzasDESTROYER | Noavg 51.8¢ | $312.91 | $460.44 | +$147.53 | 57% 47-36 (83) |
 0xdc3E831cadCTR | Yesavg 34¢ | $319.67 | $392.03 | +$17.16 | 49% 1830-1896 (3726) |
 2B9S<$100 | Noavg 67.5¢ | $23.1 | $24.14 | +$1.04 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
LU LuckyWinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $1 | $0.55 | -$0.44 | 85% 777-136 (913) |
Invested
$6.09
Value
$725.35
PnL
+$99.27
Record
—
7-2 (9)
EsperanzasDESTROYERInvested
$312.91
Value
$460.44
PnL
+$147.53
Record
57%
47-36 (83)
0xdc3E831cadCTRInvested
$319.67
Value
$392.03
PnL
+$17.16
Record
49%
1830-1896 (3726)
2B9S<$100Invested
$23.1
Value
$24.14
PnL
+$1.04
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$1
Value
$0.55
PnL
-$0.44
Record
85%
777-136 (913)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.