Consensus PnL $31K · win rate 87% (770–111, n=881) · was PM monthly #579 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$30.8K
Record
770W / 111L
Win Rate
87.0%
of 881 settled
Batting Avg
41.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#288
Source
PM monthly #579
Trades
734
Markets
981
Volume
$18.0M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 3 of 4 on the consensus side (75%)- Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $1 · now 28¢ · in at 36¢against the consensus (No)
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Yes $1 · now 89¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (73% of 15)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $1 · now 71¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?Yes $1 · now 68¢ · in at 61¢with the consensus (57% of 63)
Specialties
828 settled consensus markets · held side won 88% at an average entry of 88¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 71% of 68 · avg entry 67¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: NBA — held side won 58% of 48 at an average 65¢ entry (−7 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 7% of 56)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 42% of 33)
- 50–70¢: 6%(won 56% of 50)
- 70¢ and up: 83%(won 99% of 689)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.