Consensus PnL -$1.4M · win rate 47% (162–183, n=345) · was PM monthly #708 · holds 4 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$-1.4M
Record
162W / 183L
Win Rate
47.0%
of 345 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Unprofitable
Win-rate rank
#1922
Source
PM monthly #708
Trades
429
Markets
357
Volume
$10.6M
Top consensus positions
4 in listed consensus markets · 2 of 4 on the consensus side (50%)- Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $4 · now 14¢ · in at 4¢against the consensus (No)
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $3 · now 24¢ · in at 21¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will Texas Longhorns win the 2027 CFP National Championship?Yes $2 · now 7¢ · in at 12¢against the consensus (No)
- Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $1 · now 1¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
Specialties
94 settled consensus markets · held side won 79% at an average entry of 44¢- Soccer
+44 pts
side won 88% of 43 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +42%
- Tennis
+24 pts
side won 67% of 36 · avg entry 42¢
ROI +3%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 21%(won 60% of 20)
- 30–50¢: 43%(won 88% of 40)
- 50–70¢: 30%(won 82% of 28)
- 70¢ and up: 6%(won 67% of 6)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.