Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 90¢ · $23K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$23.4K
$2.0K
81.6¢ → 90.5¢
+11% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Noavg 81.5¢ | $20.1K | $22.2K | +$2.1K | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
SN SnapElectionAvoiderCTR | Yesavg 10.8¢ | $983.63 | $882 | -$83.35 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 86.8¢ | $260.36 | $271.35 | +$10.99 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
0X 0xbeEf3f30B4188470347542ecD64b5470418e620e-1787058048438<$100 | Noavg 74.1¢ | $36.36 | $45.19 | +$8.83 | 50% 357-357 (714) |
 funnydayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43.1¢ | $86.2 | $19.3 | -$66.5 | 50% 3914-3899 (7813) |
ArmageddonRewardsBillyInvested
$20,129.38
Value
$22.2K
PnL
+$2.1K
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
Invested
$983.63
Value
$882
PnL
-$83.35
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$260.36
Value
$271.35
PnL
+$10.99
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
Invested
$36.36
Value
$45.19
PnL
+$8.83
Record
50%
357-357 (714)
funnydayCTR<$100Invested
$86.2
Value
$19.3
PnL
-$66.5
Record
50%
3914-3899 (7813)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.