Consensus PnL $17K · win rate 52% (3891–3663, n=7554) · was PM monthly #571 · holds 11 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$17.3K
Record
3891W / 3663L
Win Rate
52.0%
of 7554 settled
Batting Avg
51.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1603
Source
PM monthly #571
Trades
1,901
Markets
8,525
Volume
$9.3M
Top consensus positions
11 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 11 on the consensus side (55%)- Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Yes $425 · now 86¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (70% of 23)
- Will Anthropic IPO by November 30, 2026?Yes $400 · now 81¢ · in at 82¢with the consensus (67% of 27)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 1?Yes $298 · now 100¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (93% of 15)
- Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Yes $265 · now 90¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (67% of 42)
- Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?No $194 · now 97¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Clippers vs. WarriorsClippers $92 · now 47¢ · in at 46¢with the consensus (44% of 23)
- Raptors vs. LakersRaptors $85 · now 43¢ · in at 43¢against the consensus (Lakers)
- Nets vs. PacersNets $78 · now 39¢ · in at 39¢against the consensus (Pacers)
Specialties
7,255 settled consensus markets · held side won 53% at an average entry of 50¢- MLB
+4 pts
side won 50% of 2275 · avg entry 46¢
ROI +4%
- NBA
+3 pts
side won 63% of 1593 · avg entry 60¢
ROI +3%
- College Basketball
+2 pts
side won 36% of 1271 · avg entry 33¢
ROI +2%
Weakest: Politics — held side won 70% of 33 at an average 82¢ entry (−12 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 12%(won 20% of 882)
- 30–50¢: 57%(won 47% of 4144)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 54% of 843)
- 70¢ and up: 19%(won 92% of 1386)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.